Research notes, build stories, and analysis on prediction markets, insider signals, and machine-native financial data.
What $150 million in prediction market volume reveals about 2026 — Polymarket's 6,512-tag taxonomy, the NO bias, and connecting insider conviction to crowd prices.
How STOCK Act disclosures expose committee-level information advantages — plus live activist and compound signals from the Greenwood platform.
How a $20/month server in North Dakota became a compound signal engine connecting EDGAR, congressional disclosures, and prediction markets — legally.
Crypto arbitrage, EDGAR insider monitoring, congressional trading feeds, and an x402 micropayment marketplace — built in 72 hours on a single server.
74.4% of all prediction markets resolve NO. The crowd systematically overprices YES outcomes — and what that means for 2028.