Prediction markets move $7.9 billion per election cycle. Research suggests congressional portfolios have historically outperformed the S&P 500. We're building the data infrastructure to track, analyze, and signal both — in real time.
The signals that matter most live at the intersection of market odds, congressional behavior, and corporate insider activity.
Aggregated from Kalshi and Polymarket. Updated continuously. Historical accuracy tracking since 2020. The crowd's collective conviction, quantified.
Coming 2027Transactions parsed from House Clerk PTR filings. 220 members tracked. Scored by conviction and amount. The trades they're required to disclose — and we're required to analyze.
In betaWeek-one trading results from EDGAR signals. Defense, energy, healthcare, finance — sectors that move when policy moves. The compound signal when insiders and members align.
Active nowFEC contribution filings — executive political donations cross-referenced with insider trading signals. When C-suite giving and Form 4 buying align on the same ticker, a pattern worth monitoring.
Active nowForm 144 filings — advance notice of insider stock sales. Bearish signal detection before restricted shares hit the open market. The sell-side layer that completes the insider intelligence picture.
Active nowNo incumbent. Both parties rebuilding. The most contested presidential election in a generation generates the most prediction market volume in history. We're building the infrastructure now.
Kalshi won its CFTC court battle. Polymarket US launched. Congress is considering full legalization. By 2028 prediction markets are mainstream financial instruments with institutional participation.
Five years of Polymarket history. STOCK Act disclosures going back years. EDGAR filings since the 1990s. The historical dataset to train models and validate signals already exists. We have it.
Prediction market trackers exist. Congressional trading trackers exist. EDGAR monitors exist. Nobody has built the compound signal that emerges when all three align on the same event. That's Greenwood Political Intelligence.
Join the early access list for Greenwood Political Intelligence. We'll notify you when the product launches — and share our research as we build it.
The research behind this platform is documented in Collective Conviction, available for pre-order October 6, 2026. Learn more →